Saturday, November 18, 2017

Bad Decisions (Tradecraft)

Game store owners, like regular people, can get into bad situations and make what look like bad decisions. If as an individual, you simply run out of cash and run out of options to feed your family this week, a payday loan is not a terrible idea. You do what you can to survive and hopefully learn how to avoid the mistake in the future. If you're getting a payday loan every pay day, something is terribly wrong, and the sting hasn't taught you anything. The same is true with store owners.

As someone who has had to survive hard times in the game trade, followed by adopting strong policies during good times, and then seeing lean times once again, there are short term strategies that only make sense when I have no other option. I may blow out product because the bill is simply due and I don't have a cash cushion to sit on it long term, which is the better play. I know I need a cushion, so I see my actions are not optimal for the long term. I endeavor to improve.

The problem in the game trade is there are too many store owners who are grossly undercapitalized, forced to make short term decisions that hurt not only their prospects, but the long term prospects of the trade. They don't just use their online sales as an exhaust port for unsold product, they need to blow out product and collect revenue, any revenue, upon product release. Anything that generates cash for their 7 day terms or even COD terms, is a win if it gets them to their next FNM, which they also treat like a cash cow. These are the payday loan customers who are there every pay day, unable to feed their store and without other options. Most will never have the capital to do otherwise.

Of course I'm talking about Magic, the cash cow of the game trade, as there's nothing else quite as liquid as cases of Magic cards. For the vast majority of the country, it's unlikely the bar will be raised to limit the number of undercapitalized stores. Here in the SF Bay Area, obtaining a commercial lease in even a reasonable area, requires a multi year commitment and demonstrated capital. But in most of the country, there's plenty of commercial, month to month real estate that can be leased with a handshake. So anybody can start a game store with ease, usually with some folding tables and Magic boxes. If you want to raise the bar, you have to regulate livestock.

That cash cow needs to have its value protected. How that's done is none of my business, and it's not legal or helpful for me to suggest how. I just think it should be noted that her udders are sore and inflamed from being milked at an increasing rate of speed. Her legs are wobbly from not getting enough rest between milkings. Worst of all, the kids have lost a taste for her milk. There's no longer anticipation, no longer curiosity as they guzzle down glass after glass, while being handed another glass before the first is even finished. Treat the cow with some respect and most of these problems go away.

As Much Rope As You Need (Tradecraft)

I could have called this post, "Boned," as a description for retailers sitting on a stockpile of Iconic Masters. Boned assumes their predicament was something that happened "to" them as opposed to poor judgment and bad circumstances. Perhaps there is a mix, but in general, I think Wizards of the Coast offered them as much rope as they needed to hang themselves, and they chose to swing at a length above the ground of their own choosing.

The problem with Iconic Masters is about timing, mostly. Mid November is not a traditional time for a significant Magic release. It's a dead season before the rush of the holidays. Generally things released during this season languish, either to be sold during December or never sold at all. It's a risky release time. So it's not surprising many retailers are reporting terrible sales during this slow lead up.

The second problem is the cost in relation to the season. My initial order of Iconic Masters was $20,000 of product on one invoice. I wrangled that down to about $12K. The problem is the end of the year is six weeks away. For a hot set or a set with a predictable sales cycle during a predictable time of the year, I'm likely to take 3-4 weeks to sell through an order and pay back that invoice. If I'm a little late on my predictions, and I've got some overstock, that's fine. However, with six weeks left in the year, what I don't sell is likely to become inventory overage, taxable as income on December 31st. There is strong incentive to dump this product for this reason alone.

Strong incentive may be an understatement, as this product is being dumpster fired (using this as a verb now) like no set I've ever seen. There are the usual suspects, but everyday stores also see the writing on the wall. At any other time of the year, the wise retailer would settle in and ride out a 3-6 month cycle of what's admittedly a very good product. But six weeks before end of the year? The risk is too high. Shove it out the airlock.

Did I mention Wal Mart has a Masters set for the first time? Oh yes. They have Iconic Masters as well as future product with the usual street date violations. The market is flooded with this product. Rather than banging the gong on Iconic Masters, Wizards has moved on, hyping the next Magic release, and making it easier for customers to just skip this one and jump on the next bandwagon.

Retailers can smell the blood in the water. They've made ground pronouncements of how they've had enough, which really just means they're reducing their upcoming orders of Magic downwards, something they should have already been doing, if demand indicates it. Distributors are going to be in a world of hurt when bills for this set are due and those retailers looking for the holidays to save them from a tough year will find their grandma money savior will go to pay the Iconic Masters.

The market has hit rock bottom folks. This is what bottom looks like. It's a shame too, because this is a very good product, despite the YouTube low lifes attempting to bad mouth it for personal gain. This is not enough to put anyone big out of business or topple a distributor, but it's a tipping point, a move from a bull Magic market to a bear market. For stores, diversification is the answer, but it was the solution to a problem that's too far gone for most.

Wednesday, November 15, 2017

Measurement and Reward (Tradecraft)

The game trade retail tier is a perfect expression of measurement and reward. When you begin to measure something and reward behavior,  you skew behavior in that direction. For example, if I give a bonus to employees for upselling product, they will absolutely upsell to every customer, whether they need it or not. My goal is to sell more things, but the reality is customers are driven away by the hard sales tactic. Upsells work in some situations, but not this one. So how are retailers measured and rewarded?

Wizards of the Coast measures butts in seats and rewards stores with status and limited product. If you look at game stores failing right now, the number two reason I've seen is the lamentations that players have done this or that. Players have moved to the store across town. Players don't like Standard right now. Players don't like the new tournament format. Oh dear, players have abandoned us!

Rewarding butts in seats has turned retailers into tournament organizers. They are not graded on their sales performance. They are not held to account for dumping $145 booster boxes for a dollar over cost. It's butts in seats, so butts in seats is how many game store owners measure success. Most don't know how to retail. Most would be offended, calling me a sell out, if I told them what they needed to do to effectively retail.

Distributors measure gross. The more you buy from a game distributor, the better the discount on games. It doesn't matter what you do with that product, just so long as you bulk up to the next discount tier. This leads to dumping, of course. If I'm $1,000 from hitting my next discount tier, why not buy that $1,000 of product and flip it online at cost? Distributors measure throughput and what we get in the game trade is tremendous throughput. Then we wonder why we have rampant product devaluation. It also ties into the number one reason stores close, undercapitalization.

Why invest in inventory that's worth ten cents on the dollar if you close tomorrow? You don't need dump trucks full of soy beans in your office to be a commodity trader, you just need to know they exist out there. I see store owners trying to sell their stores with acres full of tables and a few shelves of mostly card boxes. Pass.

Being a well diversified store, one which is a proper steward of game trade products, one that introduces and demos games to new customers, that protects brand value, that invests in inventory as a long term strategy, is not rewarded by the current game trade model. You measure throughput and butts in seats and you get throughput and butts in seats. Then retailers fail in droves, confused as to why their business model failed to perform when that's what they were being incentivized to do.





Thursday, November 9, 2017

The Stinky Gamer (Tradecraft)

Welcome to my high horse, where I survey the land around me so that I may pronounce my judgment.

Game stores have an odor problem. They smell and the problem is often blamed on gamers themselves and their poor hygiene. While there are such olfactory offending characters in our stores, the real problem is the game store itself.

Game stores are not meant to be assembly areas and most are not zoned or built for a large number of individuals with their body heat and natural odors. I'm on my high horse because I just spent six figures and six months bringing our store up to code, an unreasonable expectation to be sure, since I don't even own my own building.

So game store owners spend time masking odors, purifying air and otherwise embracing toxic chemicals to hide the stench, rather than doing the work to fix the problem. Now, if I were consulting for a prospective game store owner, would I be budgeting in a $10,000 HVAC upgrade and a bathroom remodel for typical assembly requirements? Heck no. At least not at first. However, those whose business model includes tables for hundreds of people, not dozens, would be wise to include such upgrades on their wish list.

This of course just adds to the impossible requirements of running a small business like this, the fact that nobody at the bottom could possibly afford such upgrades while everyone in the middle will have such expectations forced upon them. It's another example where it's good to be small and good to be big, but the middle has the expectations without the resources.


Our project board, so we know what to buy during the rare times we have money

Wednesday, November 1, 2017

They Want Too Much

Customers demand everything. They want price, selection, strong customer service and the new thing, experience. They want unique, "third place" experiences that provide them mental stimulation and a sense of community. These are a lot of wants, especially in a commoditized market.

The population also demands high wages. They want $15 an hour minimum wage. They want a Guaranteed Minimum Income (GMI). Conservative and liberal alike will shrug when a small business fails because of these demands. Meanwhile, job seekers languish, underemployed with job mismatches where worker skills are not the correct skill set for the hundreds of thousands of jobs that go unfilled.

Despite the higher wages, there are few workers to be had, what would normally be a sign that the pay is too low, but we've been forced to raise the pay. Where are the workers? For my store, almost every new employee requires significant training, and almost none of them match our job descriptions. The applications are notoriously slim pickings, and it's true for most stores around the country.

So everyone wants everything, nobody wants to do the job of providing it, retail increasingly moves online, and and we complain bitterly about big box retail treating us badly. Sounds like conservative talking points, but it's my experience in the trenches. Is this an impossible situation? Nope, don't despair, here's where the opportunity comes in.

Small business owners fill these gaps, delivering the impossible. The problem I have, as an established store owner, is I can't hire people to make miracles. I can either make miracles myself, or I can throw my hands up and declare miracles are phony. There is no amount of reasonable money that will let me hire a miracle worker. I cannot provide what people want under current market conditions. Can't do it. That right there is an opportunity for small business.

My inability to hire miracle workers is my competitors opportunity to make it rain. If you are delighted, entertained, awed by a local small business, I can almost guarantee you there's a business owner making miracles, because you can't hire saints and prophets, you have to become one.

This is both a competitive advantage and job security for small business, as well as a reminder to us middling businesses that you better bring the mojo. And if you continue to go to Toys R Us and Wal Mart and Target and complain bitterly about your mediocre, bargain basement experience, please remember you're asking the impossible. Maybe a small business will arise to provide that miraculous experience you crave. Maybe the prophet is you.

Thursday, October 26, 2017

The Dream

I had a dream I volunteered to inventory a hardware store. The hardware store was my original metaphor for starting my business, a simpler life with concrete things, bought and sold by people who needed them. A far cry from the IT world where I rarely understood the businesses I helped support.

I borrowed the metaphor from an old boss, who told me over lunch one day his desire to open a hardware store. When I met with him before I opened my game store, he thought I was crazy when I told him my plan. "What about the hardware store?" I asked. He told me some dreams are meant to stay dreams.

The owner of the dream hardware store laughed and handed me a clipboard with nearly infinite sheets of thin, onion paper. Each sheet had lists of weird product categories and random codes. I stared at the top, the department being the only word that made any sense: Paint. The item description had words, but the meaning was lost on me.

I walked around the store, it might have been 100,000 square feet or a million, as I never stopped walking. There were no signs. There was paint here and there, and paint cans on top shelves of other departments, but never did I find the actual "Paint" department, nor the first item on the list. I walked and I walked.

I began to despair. I agreed to do this thing. Clearly this would take a year or longer with one person, and knowing retail, the data would be worthless far sooner than that, probably by the end of the day. It was like inventorying drops of water in a swift moving river. What had I gotten myself into? What was I trying to accomplish?

It was a familiar sense of hubris. Most game store owners have no idea what they're getting into until they actually do it. Also, it's not like you get to a point where you have it all figured out, like the mythical hardware store of simplicity. I can look at every element of that dream and break it down into something I'm grappling with after 13 years in this business.

There are multiple dangers of owning a small business. One danger is you'll fail, which can be a merciful experience if it happens soon, but after the first few volatile years, the chance of failure doesn't ever lower. Ever. If you dream of a failing hardware store, you might insulate yourself with an enormous cash cushion to get through the night undisturbed.

The most dangerous thing in small business is you succeed, just enough to keep going, but not enough to be worthy of your devoted life. You may have been young and not doing anything worthwhile when you opened, but what could have you done? What could you be doing now?

The lucky few will be successful, but their dreams will be haunted by giant hardware stores and infinite inventory sheets. Store owners will say, if you can make it doing this, you can make it anywhere. But where exactly? Also, there is no doubt in my mind there's a hard working hardware store guru, who knows the location of every paint can in the enormous store they work in, who dreams of opening a game store. As my old boss told me, some dreams are meant to stay dreams.


Am I a game store owner dreaming I work in a hardware store
or a hardware store owner dreaming I work in a game store?

Monday, October 23, 2017

Stickiness (Tradecraft)

The board game market has a stickiness problem. Games are being produced at a fast, many would say unsustainable, pace. Traditional publishers are competing against the Game of the Moment via Kickstarter, their traditional business model going up against the unsustainable passion of Makers rather than the long term strategy of a competing company. Many have or will join this Game of the Moment model, rather than being left behind, and there are some solid marketing reasons to do so. Perhaps the gatekeepers no longer represent the majority of market demand. There is not enough product security, value in the supply chain, to gain traction and it's hurting everyone.

Retailers are in the middle, with games arriving on their shelves with no guarantee they'll ever be back. Unlike the traditional publisher, the Kickstarter publisher is fine with a "one and done" model and are far more concerned about getting stuck with the "hot potato" of unsold product more than their desire to establish a long term presence in the hobby game channel. Getting everything I'll ever want of a product on release is not an unusual strategy.

With their reprint, the Kickstarter publisher is willing to sell to deep discounters online, just for the inventory security. After all, who cares about product devaluation of a one shot product? They're about the passion, getting the product into the hands of players, and having the income security to do it again. They don't have time to see their inventory sit at a warehouse where some distributor may pay them one day. They're ready to move on to the next project, or just be done and pay back their home equity line of credit.

Retailers would like there to be some stickiness to games. A solid business model would include extensive support of new games with a guaranteed supply chain. The "demo table" exemplifies this, where retailers become tastemakers, teach new games to new customers, and in return obtain stratospheric sales levels. It's the American Dream of planning, putting in the effort, and reaping the reward.

Unfortunately, it's hard to find such games as most aren't sticky enough in the supply chain. The new ones tend to be "one and done" and restocks are not guaranteed at all. Often when they arrive, the online retailers have gobbled up vast amounts of supply to dump at deep discounts. Even if you do get your strong restock, you're competing with the online giants in a devalued marketplace. Product has died on the vine and no effort to push that great game to an eager customer will overcome a 40% discount online.

So the status quo, one which my store is certainly guilty of, but trying to break from, is what they used to describe in the RPG trade as the periodical model. You don't hear about the periodical model so much anymore because RPGs have, for the most part, died a horrible death in the game trade. Retailers don't talk about RPGs. What's there to talk about? I love RPGs, sell a good amount of RPGs, but I have to constantly remind myself the scale of the other departments, how we sell six times more board games and six times more CCGs. RPGs are a shell of its former glory.

Oh sure, there have never been more fantastic RPGs produced than right now, but the game trade has mostly turned its back on them, especially when there's so much more money in board games. So board games are dabbling with the periodical model, where my store gets in the game of the week, we promote it as best we can for a product we may never see again after Thursday, and then next week we do it again. There is little to no stickiness. The end result of going down the periodical model path is there will continue to be great games via alternative distribution methods, just like RPGs, but stores will stick with known quantities and just dabble with indie hits. We'll have a special indie board game distributor we'll order from once a month, if there's extra cash in the budget (or not). There are signs we're heading in this direction already as we talk about protecting brand value and a flight to quality.

I will attempt to restock the best sellers in my one and done model and maybe one or two will gain traction. However, if it's being devalued online, if supply has evaporated, if the publisher decides to raise the price 40% after the first print run, I shrug and move on. Next week we'll have an entirely new game to pimp. The last thing I want to do in this model is expend energy on any one title.

I am only penalized for treating board game as anything but a commodity item, like soybeans. It's the periodical model. I could run with this model until the board game segment is a smoldering crater in  the game trade. We'll start selling a four volume set of paperbacks describing what went wrong, picked up by nostalgic customers who once played board games but no longer have wood for sheep.

This is not a long term retail strategy for the game trade, this path of least resistance. It's certainly not what I want to do or where I'm spending my energy right now. It's not what publishers need from us, as we're the traditional marketing arm of the traditional board game publishers. But I'm not sure tradition matters so much anymore.

Our job is to be that Third Place, a venue for new discoveries and experiences. Schilling the board game of the week to exhausted board gamers will eventually dampen their enthusiasm, just like selling a 5th Edition of D&D after just recently talking up a 4th Edition that I swear was a solid replacement for a Third and a Half edition, that had to upgrade because of something something, the Ranger. You want to sell entertainment, but you don't want to feel like an entertainer, some half wit carnival barker, doing it.

So I struggle to gain traction without a sticky product category where I can plant my flag. Publishers struggle as well. Customers are not immune to the struggle, with this embarrassment of riches, where I don't even look at bringing in a new game unless it scores an "8" or a couple thousand "Wants" on Board Game Geek. Don't get me wrong, I am a huge seller of board games, but we've definitely hit our limit, the store peaked in this category. We just need some stickiness, some brand value protection, to make our stand.


Sunday, October 22, 2017

Cost of Goods: The Closed Loop (Tradecraft)

This article is about the closed loop system known as Cost of Goods Sold. Anyone who's not a buyer for a game store is not likely to understand the importance of this data, which often gets sloppy when entered into point of sale systems by harried game store staff. This is written with my staff in mind, but it might be useful for everyone who works at a game store. Feel free to share, of course.

Cost of Goods Sold is the term used to track inventory value as it goes through your store. As the name states, it's the cost of the goods the store pays from its suppliers, with the difference between the Cost of Goods and the price you sell it for being the gross profit. It's gross because it doesn't include the many expenses, like your paycheck, that reduce the slightly less than half of gross profit down to about a 5-10% net profit. For example, a $100 board game might have a cost of goods of $54 and after all the expenses of the business are taken out, may only have a net profit of $5-10. If the store is lucky.

Product is not only the lifeblood of the business, but too little inventory can lead to a catastrophic death spiral, while too much inventory can lead to an enormous end of year tax bill or outright business failure, as all the money is tied up in inventory. No new money is poured into an inventory budget, so for new product to come into the store, old ones have to be sold to produce a purchasing budget surplus. Even if your store is doing great, you might be putting older product on sale just to create this necessary surplus. There is no input without output.

Let's take a look at the full cycle of Cost of Goods, to better understand its importance. This will include looking at adding items to the system, receiving new product, and finally, Open to Buy, which which is what your store buyer is using to determine how much money is available to spend on more product. I'm using my POS system (Lightspeed Onsite) in the examples, because that's what I've got, but it worked the same way when I had Microsoft RMS and I'm guessing it's not much different for other full featured systems. 

The first time a store encounters cost of goods is on a product invoice. 

The Unit Price here is the Cost of Goods. It doesn't include things like shipping, COD costs or other "not product" cost of good expenses.

This unit price gets entered into the POS system Purchase Order, hopefully accurately. As stores tend to order product from a variety of distributors, it's important the actual price for this particular order gets entered properly onto the Purchase Order correctly, since it cascades throughout the system.

Purchase Order where the cost is grabbed from the product record, but can be overwritten if necessary

Most POS systems have a place for the Cost of Goods on the product record. It's important that the record is accurately updated and bad data isn't allowed onto the Purchase Order.  If the Cost is not entered correctly, that incorrect data cascades through the POS all the way to the purchasing budget, which we'll get to in a moment. 

Product record, where the cost is copied over to the Purchase Order when a PO is auto generated
At this point, most game store clerks stop worrying about Cost of Goods (Cost), and if they entered everything correctly on the produce record and the purchase order, everything is in good shape. But where does the data go from there?

The Cost of Goods is collected from end of day reports that track sales, noting the cost paid for each item sold. This report takes that hopefully accurate Cost of Goods number and provides it to the buyer.

This Cost of Goods number is then entered into an Open to Buy spreadsheet or hopefully some similar tracking mechanism. To be honest, most buyers don't have an Open to Buy tracker, but let's assume they're using something to track Cost of Goods so they know how much they have to spend.

The Open to Buy spreadsheet (or whatever) tells the buyer they now have $2,027.32 to add to their purchasing budget to buy product. If that number is off,  the buyer may not spend enough and is now under budget and losing sales. If the buyer spends too much, they are over budget, and not only will profitability suffer, but the business will incur taxes on the difference between the previous year's inventory value and the current year (it's good to check the difference and adjust at least quarterly). 

Open to Buy: Available = Previous Available + Cost of Goods - Purchases

So how accurate is all this? Not very. The true Cost of Goods, the only one that really matters, is in the accounting system. Last year our Cost of Goods in the POS was 53%, while Cost of Goods in the accounting system was 56%. Some of that 3% difference are Cost of Goods that are not inventory, like shipping and finance charges, things you definitely don't want polluting your POS system. That's maybe 1% of the variance. Most of that slop is bad POS bookkeeping. The most important thing for me is making sure my purchasing budget is balanced at the end of the year to avoid excess taxes.


Monday, October 16, 2017

Selling Your Store (Tradecraft)

I have neither bought nor sold a (whole) game store before, so let me give you some advice on how I think it's done. Right? It's the Internet. You decide which orifice I'm speaking from. There are many stores closing right now and sometimes owners ask me how to value their businesses for sale. The truth of selling a store is somewhere around 70-80% won't sell, they'll just close and liquidate at pennies on the dollar. If you can't show value, this liquidation route is where you'll spend your time, and as you probably didn't value your time highly in the first place, you'll likely scoff at that pennies on the dollar and spend months selling it off yourself for twenty cents on the dollar. Let's work on a better outcome by understanding what work needs to be done.

The same value creation necessary to run a successful store is the same work it takes to create a sellable store. High value businesses don't sell often, because they don't need to. They can be run from a beach or passed on to family. Stores without that value are worth a tiny fraction of their furniture, fixtures, equipment and inventory.

Although I don't have direct experience selling, I run my business with the intent of one day selling, retiring, or otherwise spending time on that metaphorical beach, which might include starting another business. Creating value worth buying is not a thing you do when it's time to sell, it's a think you bake into your business from the beginning.  Selling a business comes down to three fundamentals: profitability, dispensability, and diversity, along with the end preparation for the sale, which I'm not going to cover here (buy the Nolo book).

Profitability is the tough one, since most business owners don't want to give up a clearly profitable business. I doubt many profitable store owners would use the word "clearly" though. With thin margins and high variability between years, many game stores are "sometimes" profitable. Profitability is also something solo owners avoid, since profit is taxable. I would like to see tax returns showing profitability, but there is the helpful term Seller's Discretionary Income (SDI), that can tease out profit where there is none, according to your tax forms.

Small business owners like their deductions, with books on how to take hundreds of them. This reduction in profitability lowers taxes, but also prevents you from getting a bank loan or selling to others. However, another experienced retailer can tease out the SDI, showing potential profit where there was none before. That cell phone expense, owners health insurance, "necessary" business travel to Essen, an inflated advertising budget, leased car, and your over market salary are all profit to a frugal buyer. The difference between showing profit and not showing profit is the difference between liquidation and selling at a multiple of your net income. If you can't show profitability with your tax forms, you sure better become familiar with calculating SDI.

Dispensability is how dependent the business is on you, the owner. If you've single handedly built this business from scratch, have all the processes and procedures perfectly nailed down in your head, and have personal relationships with all your customers, memorizing what they buy, how they buy and why they buy, you have failed in small business. You might be an amazing owner, but if you're hit by a bus on the way to work today, your business is done, your family in trouble. All the value has been smooshed on the pavement. You are indispensable, which is what you want to be, how we've trained you to be as a society, when you work for others. Indispensability is a trap in small business.

Being dispensable is a process like any other. It's layering processes and procedures and training staff to run the business in your place, as well as you. When I first hired people, I would come back after the weekend and the store would be a mess, tasks only I do would be undone and I would spend a couple hours every Monday morning fixing things. After developing better processes and procedures, I could leave for a trade show for a week without the place burning down, return the next week and fix things. Now I can leave for up to a month before my processes break down, mostly my owner processes that I now need to create (and maybe later, delegate). Next year I'll leave for six weeks, outside the country where some of my current processes and procedures will cease to work, so I'll be working hard over the next six months to streamline and improve processes so I can work (or not work) anywhere in the world.

The goal of dispensability is not to have a turn key business, the 4 Hour Work Week approach. The goal is to hire and train people in processes and procedures just as complex and service oriented as when you ran your store like a champ, maybe even better! There's a dispensability trap where you start turning your back on service because it's too complex to create into processes for others. To some extent this is necessary as you grow and delegate, and you will leave money on the table and opportunity for competitors, but the heavy streamlining approach in most business books is not suitable for a hobby game store. It's a persnickety business, a perfect expression of hobbyists within a ten minute drive time, which might be vastly different from a store just across town. Flexible policies and procedures and workers empowered to serve customers even when it goes against your P&P is key to running such a unique business.

In an ideal dispensability scenario, there is a process for outgoing management to train up new managers, or creation of a middle management level if you're big enough, so when key people decide to leave (or they get hit by a bus), you're not rushing back to rebuild your business. However, this is more a goal for keeping your business, rather than selling. If you've got management in place, and you're on a beach, that's good enough to show dispensability.

Diversity is the flexibility or brittleness of your business model. In a service business, you might not have a sellable business if a large chunk of your sales was one client. If making auto parts for Chrysler was 70% of your business, I would be wary of buying your business no matter how profitable you were. Where Chrysler goes, your business goes, and I don't speak Mandarin.

Likewise, if 70% of your business is selling Magic the Gathering (MTG), you're likely to only find a buyer that's equally evangelical as you about MTG. The more diverse your business, the more value it has to an outside buyer. As I run my business, I get nervous if I can't drop a department. I would ask myself, if MTG were to drop off the planet today, would my business survive? The answer two years ago was a definite yes. The answer today, with a heavy debt load from expansion, is a resounding no.

Anyway, those are my thoughts on selling. After you decide to sell, there's a huge amount of work to find a buyer and probably about as much work in selling your business, with legal documents and legwork as there was in opening in the first place. As most store owners are demoralized, burnt out, broke and otherwise at the end of their ropes during this stage of their business, it's no wonder they can't get this last part right and simply liquidate.

Wednesday, October 4, 2017

Not In Need of Saving (Tradecraft)

It's the boom times when we ask the hard questions. If times were tough, complaints and introspection would just be complaining, so you keep quiet and put your nose to the grindstone. Revolution comes from the middle class, according to Marx, because they are the ones with the free time to explore such things. So we've got a lot of talk right now, because the game trade is booming.

The game trade has doubled in size in just a few years, if you believe ICV2 results (which you should seriously question). According to ICV2, the hobby game  trade has grown from $700M in 2014 to $1.4 billion in 2017. That's an astonishing growth rate.

Many brick and mortar hobby game stores are enjoying this success, as they should since they helped tremendously in creating it. It's not all a bed of roses. What I thought would happen is starting to happen, where large stores are better positioned to handle the consolidation in the industry, while there remains a steady stream of doomed, under capitalized clubhouses willing to risk their savings on poorly planned retail stores. There is an insanely low bar to entry in the game trade, so anyone can do it with almost no money. There are a lot more low end clubhouses than top tier stores, although you can find top tier stores in most regions of the country.

If your local retail environment is a sad shell of its former self, if it's been devalued by bottom feeders or your unemployment rate is stratospheric and you're not enjoying what's a solid economy for many, you probably see a lot more doomed clubhouse stores than you see top end stores. If you were to make a value judgment on game stores, it might not be very positive. You probably see distressed stores catering to a distressed market. However, as with the parable of the blind man and the elephant, your perception is incomplete.

The blind man walks up to the elephant and feels around, and the first thing he touches forms his perception of the creature. He walks up and touches a tiny tail and slips in piles of elephant shit. He thinks elephants are frightening tentacled, smelly creatures. The blind man is not wrong, it's just his information is incomplete. For many local markets, you wouldn't be wrong thinking game stores are the ass end of an elephant.

Who can blame you for thinking nothing good can come from the excrement you're experiencing? There certainly isn't much community being created, product champions evolving or new games being marketed in such a dismal, excremental place, right? You're not wrong.

However, if you open your eye, you'll discover great hobby game stores out there to be explored. I've taken amazing road trips across this country and if I do the research ahead of time, there are always great stores in every state I've visited. All game stores are great, due to my planning, and I might make the same mistake in reverse, thinking there are no ass end of an elephant game stores. I regularly visit clean, well lit stores with strong events, game demos, and a community of customers who spread the word and help build the hobby.

I know there are online folks who will believe their digital community has spontaneously arisen through gamer immaculate conception and that they drive the game trade forward, but everyone in the industry, those who pay their mortgages with game trade money, know it's simply not the case. They play a role, but meat space is where the critical work gets done.

Publishers put their money where their mouths reside, supporting brick and mortar game stores as an important marketing function of their business, referring to Internet only sellers as "free riders," as in they're not doing the necessary work to propel the market forward. Price protection schemes to protect publisher brand value comes out of these discussions, providing safe channels for the brick and mortar while punishing free riders. Price protection is not popular with free riders or their very noisy, insanely entitled customers, so we're seeing push back. I get that, but open your eyes folks. It's not an either or situation. You also might want to grab a shovel while you're at it.



Sunday, October 1, 2017

Working the Float (Tradecraft)

I paced the sales floor on Friday, a major release day for Magic. I was hoping it would result in a figurative pay day on what was also a literal pay day. So far, most of the the sales were paid with credit cards. I was looking for more cash as I was expecting the bank to call at any moment to tell me we were short with our payroll run. A midday deposit was on my mind. I had already raided our small cash reserves. A customer came in to sell Magic cards to my assistant manager and I had to go back to the office to hide my irritation. Cash out is not what I wanted.

Is this what failing looks like? I ask that sometime. As a veteran store owner, I know exactly the steps of failing. I've written about it in my Defcon article. I spend a lot of time avoiding taking that next step down the ladder, to the point of unnecessary risks and gambles, like working the float between bills and income on a payday. Working the float should be somewhere in my mission statement.

On the bright side, we had just passed a million dollars of sales over the last four quarters for the first time. A million dollars. I'm going to write it out, because this is new and exciting for me: $1,000,000.00. Our sales are up 16% for the year, which is a big accomplishment as we start year fourteen. Margins are good as we only sell in-store and our gross profits are strong. Net? Umm, let me tell you more gross things.

We're reaping the reward of expansion. Some departments are expanding rapidly, with RPGs and miniature games up in the 40% range. Our bid departments, areas where other stores are seeing a decline, board games and CCGs, are static, which is still a win for us. This is due to doubling our play space, doubling our events. My predictions of a modest sales increase from expansion were correct, and even a little understated, which I was hoping would be the case.

Friends asked if I was going to write a blog post about the million dollars. Ha! No way, people don't want to hear that. But then I thought I would put it in context with what comes along with the million dollars of sales. Much more stress. More hassle. Pacing and working the float. Work the float.

We are in the first year of an expansion. When you expand, you budget for the expansion. You plan ahead for unanticipated expenses. You acquire financing. If you're lucky, the expansion goes according to schedule, or maybe it went long by ten percent or so. Our six week expansion took six months, long enough that we were compensated for what were clearly some mistakes. I'm so grateful our customers supported us during this period, especially our miniatures players, the only department not to sink, despite not having room for them to play. One retailer suggested I have six months of cash reserve before doing such an expansion. If I had six months of cash reserves, I would retire. Or buy a building or five.

Right now we are lucky to be in business, to be entirely truthful, and even with free rent for a quarter, which in our case would buy you a new car, we were still severely over budget, due not only to construction but sales losses over that period. You survive or you don't in that situation and use all the resources at hand. Hopefully you have a line you won't cross where you won't borrow or hemorrhage cash any further. We're not losing money, we're just staying afloat. We're at the line, which can be characterized by turning down people who still want to loan us money, because the problem is not cash, it's cash flow.

I can write this on October 1st, because we've survived the first year after construction. We're still here! We're in the fourth quarter, where the money resides. We will work hard this quarter and pay off chunks of debt. We'll emerge in January like a colorful butterfly from a disgusting, debt ridden cocoon. Well, that's a bit overstated. We'll come out of this year slightly stronger, growing stronger each year for the next four years.

All of my personal financial hopes and dreams reside within the business as it stands right now. It's  underneath construction debt. For now I work the float. As we move forward, it's like removing the dust from a mirror, uncovering hidden potential.



Friday, September 15, 2017

The Magic (Tradecraft)

Back in my day... we bought booster packs or a starter deck. There was one deck, and you didn't need another one once you had your one. You had started. We had no idea what a booster "box" contained, how many packs or what it cost. Heck, boosters could have came in bags for all we knew. Booster bags.

There was also no World Wide Web, no Ebay and no "net decking" to tell you what to build. There were no well known Magic tournaments either. You played with your friends around a kitchen table, although tables were beginning to show up in game stores too. We lived in caves, subsisting on melted snow, dreaming of a time when we could spend hours a day arguing about nothing on the Internet (in a more pleasing graphic rich format). My lawn was just starting to bloom, so no need to ask folks to get off it. The year was 1994.

I mention this because I sell a ridiculous amount of Magic: The Gathering at my store and I had no idea how I was selling it until I recently ran the numbers. Sure, we sell singles. Even back in my day we would buy some out of the case. I was especially fond of French versions and I recall building a really cool French vampire deck so I could beat up my friends. We had been playing games like Dungeons & Dragons for years, but as young adults, we didn't have the huge blocks of time to devote to that game any longer. Magic filled that gap and kept us together as a group.

 At the store, we've only recently started getting more serious about singles, even selling them online , but I never expected them to be our best seller. My number one selling product in the store is used cards. I'm still trying to wrap my head around that.

Magic boxes are close behind, and if you ignore the few points of online sales of singles, boxes are the actual best seller. Our store strategy has always been to appeal to casual players. But what does it say when singles and box sales outstrip packs and casual products? I'm not sure if it means we've lost our casualness or if casual players are now more inclined to dip into the singles collection or gamble on boxes.

Many, if not most game stores focus on single sales. I reluctantly followed suit, getting nervous every time my staff made a big buy. Then I ran the numbers. A solid turn rate, how many times a year I sell through inventory, is perhaps 4-5 for things like board games and RPGs. I ran the numbers for our singles collection. Then I ran the numbers again. That can't be right. 50. 50 turns a year. That's like taking our entire Magic singles library, and selling them to a dude (or dudette) nearly once a week. In reality there are cards that fly through our collection, selling as soon as they're received, while other cards have never sold at all. Our recent foray into online sales saw those leave us, with a nice sales bump.  But 50 turns... It's why we have backpack dealers and stores buying point of sale machines that handle Magic singles first and everything else second.

If I sound kind of ignorant as a store owner, that's because I've resisted the pull of Magic and especially singles. We are strongly diversified, enough so that Magic could fall off the planet and we would still be here (the game trade might implode though). The mercenary nature of a lot of players has made me reluctant to engage 100% with this subculture, and that's what it is, a full fledged subculture. It's an independent subculture where judges report to the mother ship, not me, and players see Magic product as a commodity, available instantly from the lowest bidder. It's a pretty sandy foundation on which to build a business.

Magic singles are the Bitcoin of the game trade. My landlord will take neither in payment for the rent, yet I'm supposed to believe a surplus of either makes me wealthy. As of a few years ago, I've handed Magic over to my expert employees to manage, following the money rather than my 1994 concept of how things should be. I've been happy with the results as they've doubled our Magic sales from just a few years ago. It's nothing like Magic-centric stores, but it's a wonder to watch.

I've also been happy to see the Magic community come together and support the store. Our expansion project, at least the money to get it started, was done with Magic money. When it was finally built, I approached the community with arms open. This is yours. You built this. As many events as you can maintain, we'll run those events. And they've managed it four nights a week. It has come a long way from those days around the kitchen table with my friends.


Thursday, September 14, 2017

Faith in Humanity

Before owning a store, there was such a thing as having "faith in humanity." Most people were generally good and kind and well meaning. Owning a store showed how easy it it was for supposedly good people to become so-called "bad people," to steal and lie when the opportunity presented itself. The line is perilously thin between honest and dishonest. It's not some colossal battle of wills between an angel and devil on each shoulder. It's just opportunity.

If you haven't owned a store, there's no way I'll convince you this is true. There's no way I'll budge your faith. I accept that. If you do own a store, you know what I'm talking about. The familiar knife in the back. The smiling regular who spends a fortune in your store who you still discover steals on the side. The employee you took into your home who robbed you blind. The guy, now this story is totally true, who you catch walking out of your store with two hundred dollar army boxes under each arm, who blames you because his in-store D&D group is now down a player because you banned him.

When owning a store, there is no longer faith in humanity. Faith is belief and you now have demonstrable proof. The vast majority of people will make the wrong choice if given the opportunity. It's about 90%, 10% who will always steal and 80% when given the opportunity. How you engage with this fact determines how you'll view people going forward and whether you'll be happy or not. You will give up your Faith for a philosophy of trust, but verify. It's easy to become bitter when coming to grips with daily betrayal. If you want to own a store, know this loss of faith, this change in philosophy, will be a psychological price far higher than your initial investment.

Tuesday, September 12, 2017

Is It Beachworthy?

I love my staff and my customers and my hobby, but the beating heart of my business is the processes and procedures that keep it running. The ultimate goal is for me to be able to sit on a beach and have my business run smoothly. The beach is a metaphor, because if you know anything about me, I would go nuts lying on an actual beach.

The beach represents my ability to run a second business, to go on vacation, to retire, to increase my operational prowess without being laden down by poor processes and procedures. It's being able to do all processes of my business at a time of my choosing and have smooth running procedures back home that don't create exceptions in the system.

The value of my business, it's worth to other people, will fundamentally be about its beachworthiness. If the business only operates with me in it, like so many game stores, the value of the business is what you could get in a weekend fire sale. If it requires me to periodically fight fires or uncover a missing invoice because they're hidden in a box, the value of my business is severely diminished. If it's profitable while I'm on the beach, we go from fire sale to a business valuation that looks like a healthy retirement portfolio.

Getting my business beachworthy, unfortunately, requires my business partners, notably distributors and publishers, to have beachworthy processes and procedures. As my business grows, I tend to discard partners who are not beachworthy, or elements of their business that are not compatible with my very basic goals of reclining on a beach. So let's take a look at where my partners tend to fall short:

Invoicing. Is your invoicing, your fundamental process for getting paid, consistent with industry standards or are you behind or ahead of the curve? Both being behind, such as randomly tossing invoices in boxes, or being ahead, such as electronic invoices only, are painful exceptions for your beachworthy partners. 

Ask your finance people if they believe customers are paying on time and I'll bet you they'll say no. So maybe try an experiment. Maybe put your invoices in a flap outside of the first box. If you do that already, perhaps print invoices on pink paper so it stands out. If you're invoices are electronic only, compare your dating to before you became so sophisticated and see if perhaps you should go back. Can a minimum wage game store employee with six weeks of training spot and process your invoices or are they getting lost?

Sales. How does your customer, sitting on the beach, learn about new products to buy from you? Are you still sending paper? Did you get a request to forward that to the beach or is it sitting in a stack of old Uline catalogs? Are you relying on calling beachgoers to speak with them about things? Have you noticed how they avoid your calls? 

Beachworthy businesses have no time for these interruptions. Whatever it is they're doing, they're doing at their own pace, at their own chosen time. Find consistent ways to inform them of new releases. Follow up on the hits that are important for them to know, as a value add, rather than bombarding them with paid marketing messages from companies they have no interest in. 

Pre orders should be funneled to a website where that information is visible, changeable (to a particular date) with clear indications of shipment times. If you don't have this, the beachworthy business will be forced to move to someone who does. The more beachworthy, the more likelihood of switching. Beachworthy businesses have all the money, by the way.

Clear Processes. Beachworthy businesses have staff with assigned tasks. One of the biggest mistakes of a game supplier is expecting crossover. They envision the game store as a one person operation, rather than a bundle of processes and procedures spread across a large staff. If the person running events is asked to place orders, or the order person is asked to perform event related activities, you've crossed the streams of the beachworthy business and it's likely what you're asking won't reliably happen in that business. Know what you're asking and who you need to handle the task. 

Finally, be aware of who is beachworthy and who is not and find ways to add value to their businesses while they are on the beach. A strong partner will remind the beach goer of events, products, and even upcoming seasonal issues. They might be more flexible when the customer is close to the free freight requirements. This might sound like doing their job for them, but it's easy to lose focus when you're not physically present in your stores every day. There is likely a program worth developing for such stores, which are also likely to be your biggest accounts.

This may sound like special favors for big accounts, but all stores can become more beachworthy with better processes and procedures from distributors and publishers. Beachworthy is another word for valuable, after all, and removing your exceptions and idiosyncrasies from their operation directly contributes to that value.


Tuesday, September 5, 2017

Good Luck and Tight Lines

There's not enough capital.

Publishers underprint their products. They would like to print more, but they have limited resources and for the mid level publishers, perhaps too large a portfolio.

Like tired fish swimming up a narrow stream, there can only be so much product in the distribution channel. The channel itself is a bottleneck that restricts available fish. As fish enter the distribution stream, I need to decide on my catch of the day. How deeply do I want salmon? Will my supply of carp last through it's inevitable demand?

I could curse the river, and it's narrowness and how it tends to twist and turn giving advantage to some fish over others. If it were only wider, I curse. And maybe deeper. But the real problem is my own. Despite the shortcomings of the stream, the number of fish far outstrips my meager ability to catch what I need. If I only had another line, perhaps I could satisfy all the demand. My problem is I am also undercapitalized, so I have to pick winners and losers among an embarrassment of riches, and hope for the best.

The customer in my shop care nothing about concepts like capitalization, they just want their fish. Some even want exotic saltwater fish that don't enter the stream, but occasionally I'll be tricky and find a way to get those as well, direct from the deep sea fisherman. The most loyal customers will buy from me, if I have the fish they want, but will declare they're heading out to sea to find a catch of their own, if I can't provide.

I sadly nod and wish them well on their journeys. "Good luck and tight lines," I tell them. I want them to be satisfied with their catch, but I know eventually, if I send them out to sea enough times, they'll get a taste of that salt air and they'll stop buying fish from me. The secret to my trade is turning people into occasional fish buyers faster than I turn them into fishermen.


Sunday, August 20, 2017

Passion and Business (Tradecraft)

If game store owners could run their businesses on passion, good intentions, and love of games alone, we most certainly would. Believe me, many of us have tried. Outspoken game store owners are told they're destroying the hobby when they encourage others to run their store by the numbers, profitably. They're told this by other store owners mostly, future ex store owners to be sure, because passion doesn't cut it alone. 

If you want to see passion alone, read the Designers & Dragons series and you'll see the pattern that passionate game designers with no business sense are doomed to the pages of an obscure series like this one, relegated to wistful conversations about gamer childhoods. The winners, those that survived to make it to today, were able to match their passion with business acumen. It's no different with running a game store. 

The margin of error is too slim for passion alone and as you expand, the complexity of running a store is well beyond the capabilities of the average person's ability to manage their personal finances. New tools and techniques are needed and you will not receive them from your distributor or publishers, who are intent that you buy-buy-buy constantly, with carefully constructed finance systems that insulate them from the enormous churn of failing stores, estimated to be as high as 25% a year. Of course we have no real data nor even a definition of "store," to show how backwards we are.

The desire to reduce this churn is why some of us give talks on business management at trade shows, in hopes to reduce the churn. Although the number of such stores attending trade show seminars is certainly growing, it's probably a bit like preaching to the choir, perhaps the top 10% or so of store owners attending. Those are just people receptive to advice. Most of the advice I give falls on deaf ears, because it doesn't match the idealized nature of a game store in the future owners mind. "But if I don't have a lot of money, I can still do this, right?" Well, no. You can't. Money would be a barrier to entry in most fields, but not this one. They proceed anyway and join the 25%.

So you don't become a professional retailer because you lost your passion, you do it because you want to survive and prosper at a level beyond "buy a job" status. Perhaps you want to own a home one day or get married or have children or just take vacations. In this trade, that often makes you a sell out, a money grubber, or the worst accusation of all in a hobby that runs on geek credibility, an imposter. And you'll likely suffer from imposter syndrome for a good long time, probably until you get crusty and stop caring about the opinions of others. May you acquire crust with great alacrity. 

Saturday, August 12, 2017

Vacation and WPN Article

I've been on vacation, so I haven't written much, with my usual level of rantiness reserved for myself, rather than expressed outward. Vacations are great to stress test the business, watching the rubber hit the road when it comes to policies and procedures. In my case, it became crystal clear what needed doing by the second week ... but with three weeks to go, I've got to put a pin in that and revisit it when I return.

My revelation was about the precarious state of the business after expansion, and the buckling down that I personally need to do to nurse it back to better health. It's like a marathon runner that just ran 26 miles and nearly collapsed at the finish line and I'm asking him if he wouldn't mind running over and picking up a quart of milk across town. Just chill out already. That's directed at me, while my staff and my manager have been fantastic in my absence.

I've agreed to write articles for Wizards of the Coast in their Wizards Play Network series. Other game trade authors like Michael Bahr are also in the mix, and I encourage you to read them. It was infuriating to hear non retailers give retailers advice in previous WOTC articles (just keep your bathrooms clean), so I'm glad they've asked us to write for them.

My first article is When and How To Expand. I have a very good editor over there that cut this sucker down to size while keeping my "voice" intact. I think it turned out well, especially the section on motivation. In the upcoming book, I try to expand on just about every option for obtaining money for these endeavors. This is an area that I don't mind admitting I've mined pretty hard over the years. OPM is my specialty, at least at the micro level.

Tuesday, July 25, 2017

Subculture, Style and Enjoyment of a Thing

Gaming is a subculture, a basket of subcultures really. Using the Dick Hebdige definition of culture from his book Subculture: The Meaning of Style, culture is a "coded exchange of reciprocal messages." Style is how that culture expresses itself, defined as a "signifying practice." The problem we have in gaming culture is a question of authenticity.

When those who believe they are part of the subculture experience someone outside the culture signifying, we have the potential to run into conflict, especially when that person doesn't match the usual encoding for that culture, usually because they are female or a person of color.

Geek culture is overwhelming white male, as we know (which is thankfully changing). As a store owner with female employees, I know they are regularly challenged on their cultural authenticity, their signifying questioned because of their gender. The messaging reciprocity isn't accepted because of unfortunate stereotypes.

The thing to remember about subculture, is it's an adopted culture. There doesn't need to be accusations of cultural appropriation, a term used to describe those who adopt cultural signifiers as style, without belonging to the culture itself. Cultural appropriation has a political component, as in the cultures being appropriated have a history of marginalization. Appropriating a marginalized culture is a kind of theft. However, as much as geek culture is marginalized by conventional society, it hardly rises to the level of say African American culture or the travails of the LGBT community. Geek culture can drop the militancy.

Geek culture does not need special protection or organizations to preserve its roots from conquering cultures. What it does need is a little more understanding of how people engage in subculture. In short, geek culture needs to chill out and allow engagement at a level comfortable for the signifier. You can legitimately like a thing without going deep into the tradition. The Internet allows deep immersion into subcultures, with nearly no limits to its depth.

There needs to be respect for those who dwell at all the depths of the subculture, an openness that allows each of us to learn from each other, rather than ego driven genitalia measurement that often accompanies signifying conversations.

At its root, geek culture is youth culture, and youth culture is about how one defines oneself. Defining oneself is often in opposition to the Other. A sign of maturity, a sign that geek culture can grow up, is dropping the opposition, signifying to root out the Other. The high priests can engage and embrace their brethren, even if the adherent only goes to church on Sunday.

Wednesday, July 19, 2017

Third Place Theory in the Devalued Marketplace

Third Place Theory is the foundation of the modern hobby game store. Here's a reminder of the characteristics of Third Place from the Wikipedia article cited above:

  • Free or inexpensive
  • Food and drink, while not essential, are important
  • Highly accessible: proximate for many (walking distance)
  • Involve regulars – those who habitually congregate there
  • Welcoming and comfortable
  • Both new friends and old should be found there.

Third Place Theory is the Unique Value Proposition every game store needs. It's not enough to exist and sell stuff well, it requires this special sauce. The problem with Third Place is it functions poorly in a devalued marketplace. When customers buy product online at a steep discount and use the Third Place to access community, the Third Place facility acts as a host in a parasitic relationship. 

With game trade product devalued, the response from the venue is to increasingly monetize Third Place, whether it be nominal fees or how we do it with paying a small fee to play that goes towards store credit, essentially guaranteeing anyone playing is a de facto customer. This is somewhat at odds with Third Place and a bit alien to store owners. 

Nobody wants to charge for game space. I'll just repeat that: Nobody wants to charge for game space. Game stores are not built on the movie theater or hotel model where our commodity is the space and there's a need to sell it in a particular space-time or forever lose its value. There is limited money and opportunity to make third space our main event. The main event is having things customers want, when they want it, with special sauce to increase that demand. We're not in the special sauce business.

Increasingly publishers are moving to protect their brands from predatory pricing. They understand the hobby game store is their marketing arm, and when people stop playing their games in stores, publisher sales fall. Store owners who understand this relationship between brand value and Third Place are actively shying away from devalued brands and actively embracing protected brands. 

Retailers no longer wish to be part of a polyamorous relationship. Let me be clear though that root cause of devalued product is the very system itself, the distribution model that sells to poorly run game stores that use the Internet like an exhaust port. There are only a handful of relevant online discounts, not that they don't bear responsibility as well. As with most dysfunctional relationships, there is blame and failed responsibilities on both sides.

The winners and losers in this selection of publisher value are not always obvious, they're not the usual winners and losers. 30 publishers account for 80% of my sales, and I'm increasingly looking beyond these top 30 for value, which assumes I have an apparatus in place that can push demand. For example, we're seeing stores shy away from Wizards of the Coast, with their deep devaluation and move more towards companies like Cool Mini or Not who are more active in protecting brand value and supporting retailers. 


Saturday, July 15, 2017

Competency Curve (Tradecraft)

It takes a long time for a new team member to gain competency. This often surprises people, especially those who think their teenaged children would be perfect for a game store position. The complexity of the job mostly has to do with the level of service we provide. A game store owner who makes a bunch of exceptions to satisfy customers is likely to create a chaotic environment. A store owner who turns those customer pleasing exceptions into policies and procedures is bending the service curve in their favor. Unfortunately, that also adds to staff complexity.

The complexity of implementing such policies and procedures is why working at my store is wickedly complex. I personally would have a difficult time learning all the tasks we're expecting new staff to master. There is a tremendous amount of detail involved in sales, special orders, receiving, and day to day operations of the store. Change exceptions occur on a daily basis, usually communicated through Facebook. Some of our tasks are now specialized with a division of labor for things like online sales and technical tasks, like iPad content updates.

The game trade doesn't help either, as we have no uniformity amongst suppliers, meaning it takes a holistic understanding of the trade in order to function well within it. Yesterday we had to adjust our cost of goods on Magic boxes, because Wizards of the Coast sells product by the pack, while everyone else sells it by the box. Our point of sale system had Magic boxes with $2.11 cost of goods. As an employee, you inherently understand this and know how to manage this in the POS, how exactly? 

Special orders are looked up on one distributors online system, but might be set to be sourced from another. The employee will need to know which product code to use based on distributor, as one insists on a space between their alphanumeric code, while another might just make them up as they go. Oh and margins on items? Yeah, they're all the same with our primary, our secondary changes on a quarterly basis, and they're always the same with Games Workshop, unless it's a web item, in which case it's not. You all should know that, right?

This is all fine with a single owner-operator, but with nine people on staff, it means there's a competency curve, often based on time in service. Institutional knowledge takes a long time to develop. This means there's always confusion. Always. It also means we're insulated from a lot of big competitors because the game trade is such a shitshow.

It takes about six weeks to train up a new employee. Acquiring competency takes even longer, perhaps six months. I still consider an employee new within the first two years. Mastery? That's probably at the four year mark. Mastery really means they've internalized store culture and behavior, good and bad. If it's hard to train a new person, it's even harder to change behavior in a veteran. There's the Zen saying, "In the beginner's mind, there are many possibilities. In the expert's, there are few."

As an IT professional, my longest job was two years, yet I'm expecting my own employees to stay for far longer than that, and in fact need them to stay far longer to acquire the institutional knowledge necessary to make the business function. Could it be simpler? I think the answer is no. I really do. I think the level of service needed to survive as a brick and mortar store is now at the level of "exceptional." It's a big reason why we're all so obsessed with our trade, why we write blogs and talk incessantly on Facebook within a half dozen groups.  Survival requires tricks, customer delighting exceptions turned procedure, and the goal of perfection, which will always fall short. We'll do it with a staff that isn't paid nearly enough for the years of service required to learn the skills necessary to maintain such quality. 

As I've said many times, achieve mastery working for me, and you can go anywhere, do anything. I thought getting into this trade would simplify my life. The complexity is enormous. I'm extremely lucky to have such dedicated staff making it look easy.


Thursday, July 13, 2017

Presentation Anxiety and GTS 2018 (Tradecraft)

I will be presenting my inventory management seminar again at the GAMA Trade Show, March 12th-16th in Reno. I really don't like talking in front of groups, another reason I've been hitting the YouTube hard with new videos. I'm not even comfortable with myself and a camera, so overcoming that anxiety is important for me and my future endeavors (I sound like a guidance counselor).

Funny story, I took my freshman speech class requirement as a senior in college. I had this absurd idea I could skip graduation requirements if I demonstrated I was well beyond the minimal requirement. Ha! I also turned in my MA thesis close to the deadline, in the last hours of the year, because I ignored the margin size requirements. I learned to follow directions by having it pounded into me.

So true story, I was also taking courses at an executive security school, namely bomb detection and identification. When it came time to do my freshman speech class presentation (as a senior), I chose bomb detection and identification as my topic. I went to the classroom thirty minutes before class and hid fake bombs throughout the room.

Then as I explained each type of explosive device, I went over to the hidden bomb and demonstrated a detonation, using a battery and flash cube element to simulate the explosion. There were motion sensitive bombs, time bombs, pipe bombs, you name it. It was a huge hit. This was 1991, so we were still a decade away from 9/11 and the social more against joking about explosives. I suppose the point of the story is find ways to personalize your presentation to take your focus off your anxiety and onto the topic at hand.

If you're planning to go to GAMA in Reno, now is the time to reserve your room. The block with the cheapest rooms is already full. Yesterday, when I reserved my room, I ended up in the next most expensive block. I've stayed at the Peppermill a couple times, on purpose even, and it's an excellent, smoke free hotel. It is away from Downtown Reno (a good and bad thing), so if you don't get a room at the Peppermill, you will be commuting to the show.




Tuesday, July 11, 2017

Video Roundup (Tradecraft)

I've had more free time than usual this summer, with my family out of town, so I've been playing more with game trade videos. I started with some "around the store" topics, but settled in with business interests. I've had readers wondering if I had switched mediums, but rest assured, I'll keep writing. I'm going on vacation in a week, so the videos will stop for a while and I'll consider if I want to put more effort into them when I get back.

If you watch the videos, I think you'll agree they get better going forward. I learned important techniques, like holding the camera horizontally, taking the case off the phone for better sound, trying to use the best lighting (and locking the iPhone to keep it from hunting) and not letting them see your nostril hairs. I've also become more comfortable in front of the camera. Part of that is doing most of the later videos by myself in an empty house.

My goal was to do this without new equipment, and so far that has worked. Videos also get made without a script, editing and in a single take (lucky you). I figure if I need a script, it probably deserves a blog post. As I've gone forward, "one take" has meant multiple takes, and I've gotten comfortable re-shooting the same topic with my thoughts better organized. Sometimes I re-shoot four or five times.

If an idea comes to me and I can organize it in my head, I think it's worth a video. If it's deeply complex, and many of my video requests are complex, then it's probably a better blog posts. Blog posts take more time, especially complex ones, so you'll see I've shot a bunch of little videos in a little over a month.

Anyway, if you like the videos, please "Like" them on YouTube and Subscribe to the channel. Someone recently discovered my YouTube channel and tweeted I was a great resource on finance, known by less than 100 people. You would get that impression on YouTube. It's not that I need personal validation (which is always nice too), I just need to know if it's a medium worth pursuing.

Here's what you may have missed since my last post about videos, in order except for the first two (two parts). There are more besides these, so please explore the channel if you find them interesting.

Introduction to Commercial Leases, Part Un


Introduction to Commercial Leases, Part Deux


The Successful Hobby Game Store


Game Retailer Success


Avoiding Discount Culture


Monetizing Game Space


Process Improvement


Impressions of Kobold Press D&D 5E Products


So You Want to Start a Game Store: Business Plan


Rejection of Expertise in the Game Trade


So You Want to Start a Game Store: Your Income
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Monday, July 10, 2017

Ordering Board Games (Tradecraft)

I banged out a post on Facebook over the weekend that store owners appreciated, so here's an expanded and cleaned up version of how I order board games. It goes more into my thinking process of why I do what I do.

What distinguishes board game ordering from every other type of ordering is new board games are almost always not that new. What I mean is they've been out in the wild. People have played these games, reported back their thoughts, and there's a general consensus about its quality and value. Many games are derived from Kickstarter, so I also need to determine if the market is big enough, too big, or if there's artificial hype related to this.

Nothing else in the game trade is like this. If I want to order a new Magic set or new RPG book, there are very few people who have touched this product before me.  Being a buyer for board games is a bit like playing catch up, even though the game hasn't technically been released yet. Board games are also tricky for new store owners because reprints are always coming back into the trade, yet distributors never mention this when soliciting for a game. It's easy to get burned ordering a cool looking game, only to find out it was released five years ago and everybody already has it. There is institutional knowledge gained from doing this over the years, skills that both irritate store owners and insulate them from competition.

Below is my process for ordering board games. Note that although I have product knowledge and can sell a lot of gateway games to new customers, I am woefully out of touch personally, with most new releases. I also don't work the sales floor that often, so increasingly I rely on my staff to do the heavy lifting of board game sales.

Also, I'm not saying anyone can do this. Unlike games like Magic, there tends to be one dominant board game store in each market. If you are not it, you are not going to be happy attempting to sell board games. I struggled with board games for four years before the dominant board game store closed when the owner retired. It has taken my many more years to be deserving of that mantle.



We're going to pick on Vikings: Invasions of England as our example today because it was the first item solicited by ACD on Saturday.

Here's how I do it:

1. Solicitations. Every Saturday, ACD Distribution, my primary distributor, sends me an email. This email has everything new for pre order. There's nothing new on their emails throughout the week, so I completely ignore them. This one email is my key to pre ordering. If it gets lost or it's not worked on by me or my sales rep, bad things happen (ask me how I know).

I'll also go through Game Trade Magazine from Alliance and pick out things ACD is not carrying (since Alliance is my secondary). Then my GTS rep will call to tell me about some exclusive they've cornered or a game he thinks isn't getting enough attention. So three distributors all wanting to sell me generally the same stuff, along with emails from a few more. If I'm certain of a hit and supply or release date is in question, I may order the same game from all three.

I pre-order everything I will want in my store. Everything. Let me mention one more time, absolutely everything that comes into my store was on pre order. It means when distributors get allocated product, they first fulfill their pre orders and then divvy up what's left. All the complaining about being allocated comes from people in the divvy pool. My fill rate on allocated product is close to 100%. There's a caveat to that though. Because I only order a 30 day supply, I generally order reasonable amounts. If I had a robust demo program and was ordering a hundred or more copies, I would likely not get my full request. So stores that don't do the right thing, as in not pre ordering, are punished by the system along with alpha stores who do everything right. I'm in the middle for now.






2. Research: Ranking. I hate to say it, but I rely on boardgamegeek for most of my information. So do buyers at distributors. I'll go on boardgamegeek and look at the ranking. Ugh, that game looks terrible, or wow, that designer has a LOT of friends. This means ... something, like the Richard Dreyfuss mashed potatoes scene from Close Encounters.
Like the Vikings game above, a game with many rankings in the "8" territory is a good sign. A small number of rankings is meaningless. A huge number of rankings is a warning sign the market may be saturated, usually reserved for a Kickstarter game that's getting a reprint for distribution, or something similar.  The 8.68 Vikings game above has 46 ranks. That's not bad. You have my attention. Anything below a 7.5 is not a win in this category. It doesn't mean I don't order it, but I'll need more positive information.
Note on Kickstarter rankings: There is the belief that Kickstarter games have a strong confirmation bias when it comes to rankings. This means customers who backed this game, bought into the hype, waited a year, and then finally got their game, tend to rank their games higher than something they just bought off the store shelf. I might knock off half a point for that. 


3. Research: Desirability. I'll look at the desirability stats for this game. How many people have it? How many people want it? This is far more important than a ranking really. That's because rankings on boardgamegeek are a bit elitist and many popular games are not well ranked. Munchkin has a 5.95 on boardgamegeek and 1,200 people still want 15 year old Munchkin. 361 people want Vikings so that's a market I want to tap. 
Note that 5,425 people already own Vikings, a game that hasn't been released it.  Is that a deal breaker? For me, no. This game raised half a million dollars, showing it has depth of interest. If it had 500 backers and $50,000? I might pass. Around $50K is where I begin to pay attention. 

4. Quantifying an Order. Now I decide how many Vikings I want. This game has a very high ranking, which is a plus. It has a very high desirability, which is also a plus. However, it's $80, which is a huge negative. It's not that my customers can't afford it, it's that the higher the price point, the more likely a game is purchased online at a discount. 
If I had some early release offer, it would boost this number, but I don't.  I should also do actual game research at this point, and see if this game is a niche game, like a deep simulation or strategy game, or whether it has broader appeal. I think it's the former. 
I might look at how well Viking themed games sold for me in the past. It's not a popular theme for me, it turns out. If it had a popular license or theme, it would certainly boost numbers. 
If I'm really on the fence, I might post a link to this game and ask my store board gamers their opinion. We're partners in wanting to get them cool games from me, so they'll often chime in. Through a lot of marketing effort, we've built our private group to over 400 board game customers, so it's often a tremendous resource. My board game customers know way more about board games than I do, and I ask them regularly for help. 
So how many do I buy? First, I want to buy a 30 day supply. Why 30 days? That's my terms with my distributor. I want to sell all these Vikings copies before the bill is due. If I had COD terms, my thinking would be different and my opportunities curtailed, as I would need money up front to back my Vikings.
Because this is an $80 game, the number I'll buy is severely curtailed, but because it's ranked so highly, and it's so desirable, it gets bumped up a bit. I believe my local market will move through 5 Vikings in 30 days. Something else to consider is the publisher. Academy Games is not a big publisher, so my likelihood of getting a restock on this game, especially starting as a Kickstarter, is incredibly slim. 
Kickstarter games that get into distribution usually consist of a small print run over the backer numbers, so I will assume that I will get my 5 copies of Vikings and never see it again. If I have strong feelings about the viability of Vikings long term, and I have deep pockets (I don't), it would be wise for me to go long on this game and get perhaps a six month supply. 30 copies of Vikings. With those deep pockets comes the responsibility to better research this game, but with my 30 day supply, my risk and responsibilities are significantly lower. If I miscalculate, my 30 day supply might be 90 days, while the deep play might leave me with unsold copies of Vikings for years.

5. Sure Things. There are 30 publishers where the question is not whether I'll buy a game, but how many copies. Even a low ranking game (or not even listed game) from one of them is worth one copy. 80% of my sales come from these 30 publishers, so I don't mind going a bit deeper or taking a risk on one of their games. There are a ton of "dog" games from Asmodee, but in the aggregate, I make out like a bandit. Taking a chance on an unknown Asmodee game is still pretty safe. When I was new, I would have stuck with these 30 (once I figured out who they were) and avoided independent board game publishers, but I've learned if I want to lead in this category, I have to consider everything. 
"Everything" for me includes distribution solicitations and many games on Kickstarter. Although I'm highly critical of Kickstarter, I've backed 51 projects. I've lost about 10% of my money doing this, so a Kickstarter project for me instantly has a 10% lower margin. It has to be a sure thing. Because Vikings is obtained through distribution, and not Kickstarter, I don't need to factor in that risk (resulting in lower quantities). To really succeed with board games, I believe you need to be out beyond the bubble of the game trade, talking with publishers, going to trade shows, and buying games without someone in the middle curating your experience. You know, like alpha board gamers do. I don't do that, but I will in the future.

6. Social media. I'll pay close attention to my peers in the game trade AND my local board gamers. What is everyone talking about? Retailers have gone quiet over their scoops, because supply is limited and we are all competing for the same limited pool of product. I made a big deal here about Gloomhaven after hearing the inside hype and ended up with a single copy from my large pre order. 
I'll listen to board game publishers and give extra attention to specials. For example, if I'm given a month of exclusive access to sell their game in exchange for ordering a higher quantity, I'll often take publisher's up on that offer. Kickstarter hype is also important for me, especially since I'll back projects for my customers. They will now come to me to ask me to back a project, and I'll usually assume there's stronger demand behind their request.

7. Supply. When the game is finally released, I'll ask about supply from my sales rep and if it's low, I may up my order quantity. This is often my last chance to keep that game in stock. Also, a limited quantity means higher demand, another variable in determining stock quantity. 

8. Missed Opportunities. How would I improve this? I would be at the forefront of board games and attend fan conventions. I would play more board games to understand the trends and desires of my customers. I would have better publisher relationships. I would visit board game forums, pay attention to what's hot. I would most certainly demo games and be looking for games that demo well. We have an expanded demo library but it has a long way to go before it becomes an impressive resource. 
I can't emphasize game demos enough, as it trains staff and supercharges sales, yet it's hard to implement. I would hire board game specific staff at every opportunity (incredibly difficult). I would do more staff training, including paying staff to attend board game nights. I would have a bankroll for going deep when I know I need to go deep. I can often identify opportunities, I just lack cash reserves.
9. Results. We sell a quarter million dollars a year of board games with this method. I believe I'm successful in getting the hits in my limited, somewhat provincial market. I believe I'm paying attention to what customers want. I'm certain I'm missing a lot of opportunities, especially because of cash flow, but definitely because of lack of product knowledge between myself and staff (sales is a whole other topic). To be successful selling board games, customers need to want a game within my economic window of being able to obtain it. That's a narrow window that taps buying, marketing, and sales. The better I am at all three of these skills, the more I sell and the happier my customers.